Forecast Based Financing

Modelling drought for early action in Madagascar.


In Madagascar, Start Network members are modelling and predicting drought in order to access funding and act early.

Photo credit: Oxfam

About Forecast Based Financing

With support from the Start Network, Welthungerhilfe Madagascar is building a scientific model that will:


- Identify when an agricultural and meteorological drought has occurred

- Predict the human impacts of the drought

- Release funding  according to the severity of the drought 


The model will be operational by the end of 2019 in 3 regions of Madagascar and in 2020 we hope to use this model to preposition funding within it, to allow the science to trigger the release fo funds when a drought is predicted.


We hope to achieve the following:


- Build a national financing mechanism  that  allows  for  multiple  donors to fund various levels of risk

- Integrate local needs and risks scientific model

- Adopt a  flexible contingency planning approach

- Create a continuum of risk financing - where different types of funding can be activated at different stages, depending on the type and timeline of a crisis.