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Information is Power: Connecting local responders to the risk information that they need

Anticipatory action allows humanitarians to be better prepared for humanitarian events by analysing and quantifying risks in advance of crises or disasters, pre-positioning funds, and releasing these funds according to pre-agreed protocols. Since 2016, Start Network has been developing new funding instruments which enable humanitarians to mobilise collaboratively and predictably in order to manage risks rather than react to disasters and crises. To increase Start Network member’s ability to undertake anticipatory actions, it has been working to improve forecasting tools, helping members to access quality forecast information, and is developing technical guidance and training resources.

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Knowledge, attitude and practice around heatwaves in Karachi, following a forecast-based heatwave messaging project.

The humanitarian impact of extreme heat is an increasing concern, especially in low-income countries with limited access to quality healthcare and informal dwellings which can trap heat. This report analyses the knowledge, attitude and practice of Karachi residents in relation to managing extreme heat. It was conducted in 2020 following a messaging campaign led by HANDS related to extreme heat. The project was triggered through a disaster risk financing approach, using a heatwave model to trigger funding automatically when extreme heat was forecast.

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10 Lessons from the first three years of Crisis Anticipation

In 2016 the Start Network launched Crisis Anticipation within the Start Fund. This short brief documents the 10 key lessons learned and recommendation from the first 3 years of Crisis Anticipation at the Start Network.

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MONTHLY RISK BULLETIN ISSUED: NOVEMBER 2020

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

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LEARN about Crisis Anticipation and Risk Financing

Start Network’s first virtual Assembly meeting took take place from Monday 12 to Thursday 15 October 2020, alongside our 10-year anniversary celebrations. Watch the recordings of the sessions related to Anticipation and Risk Finance and access all the learning materials below.

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Monthly Risk Bulletin Issued: September 2020

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

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Monthly Risk Bulletin Issued: August 2020

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

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June 2020 Risk Brief

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

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Start Fund handbook

This handbook details the procedures which govern the use and allocation of the Start Fund

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Start Fund: Evaluation of Crisis Anticipation

In 2019, we commissioned our first evaluation of crisis anticipation at the Start Network. We were keen to reflect on our risk-taking, look at which hazards we needed to invest in to improve our skill, and learn how to better measure the quality of anticipation alert notes submitted to the Start Fund. A key element of this was to look back across anticipation alerts and see where our forecasted emergencies had happened as expected and what kind of differences we had seen. The evaluation looked at fourteen anticipatory projects from thirteen different forecasted crises. It concluded that half of them had not occurred, which prompted a wider review of all the projects where data was available to determine whether their forecasts were correct. To do this, we used information submitted by implementing agencies when their project has finished. We looked at data from 37 projects, which were implemented across 24 different forecasted emergencies. Thirty-six percent of forecasted emergencies took place as predicted or with a more significant impact, meaning 64% either did not occur or occurred with less intensity. While the Start Network saw a few ‘false alarms’ as a characteristic of a healthily risk-taking humanitarian system, the number of near misses seemed high. Looking into the data, we learned three key points which will inform our approach moving forward.

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Sector wide review of monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning methodologies for forecast-based action

This document summarises approaches used to evaluate the impact of forecast-based action to date from across the humanitarian sector. It is a useful reference for anyone setting up impact assessments of forecast-based action.

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Do it yourself assessment of the impact and value for money, for a forecast-based project in Bangladesh

This learning paper documents the process and learning from an impact assessment of a forecast-based project in Bangladesh. It is useful for anyone looking at impact measurement of forecast-based action.