Volunteers standing raising awareness
© Elysé, ERT Medair 2022

Forecast-Based Financing Madagascar

Modelling drought for early action in Madagascar. In Madagascar, Start Network members are modelling and predicting drought in order to access funding and act early.



With support from the Start Network, Welthungerhilfe Madagascar has built a scientific model that:

  • Identifies when an agricultural and meteorological drought has occurred
  • Predicts the human impacts of the drought
  • Releases funding  according to the severity of the drought 


The model was operational by the end of 2019 in 3 regions of Madagascar. In 2020, no drought was predicted and therefore no funding was released. In 2021, localised drought has been predicted in one of the 3 regions we were monitoring throughout the rainy season. As such, funding has been released for early action. The operation, headed by WHH Madagascar, will last from May to November 2021. This is the first forecast-based drought intervention of its kind in Madagascar. Results and learnings will be published in due course.

The resources below provide guidance and information on how this drought early action and financing system operates in Madagascar. In 2021 we plan to expand the programme to other regions of the country - particularly to regions in the South of the country, which is more regularly affected by severe drought. We also hope to involve more Start Network members in this expansion phase, and look forward to operating a scaled-up version of this system in 2022.