Anticipating Conflict

Violent conflict is one of the primary drivers of humanitarian crises and is strongly correlated with other types of insecurity. Yet, anticipatory action (AA) for violent conflict remains underdeveloped compared to climate-related hazards. Even where AA is proposed or theoretically feasible, translating it into effective implementation strategies remains challenging, largely due to the nascent evidence base for forecasting and responding to conflict. 

This review addresses a critical evidence gap by providing the first comprehensive analysis of the Start Fund’s anticipatory alerts and activations related to displacement due to conflict and election-based violence. While the Start Fund was not explicitly designed for anticipating the humanitarian impacts of conflict and violence, its flexible, context-driven approach makes it well-suited for non-linear crises. Given the volatility and complexity of conflict, the Start Fund’s dynamic approach to anticipatory action—which integrates risk analysis and monitoring through mixed methods—enables it to capture multi-risk landscapes and assess evolving vulnerabilities and exposure. Unlike trigger-based models, which rely on pre-agreed thresholds, prepositioned funds, and predefined action plans, the Start Fund’s ad hoc funding model and dynamic approach to risk analysis allow it to respond dynamically to the fluid, context-specific nature of conflict-related crises.

Start Network is building further capacity in this area with a three-year Conflict Anticipation Project funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This project seeks to strengthen and scale Start Network's approach to conflict anticipation, and to build on identified learning to better prevent and mitigate humanitarian impacts.