Monthly Risk Briefing (July)

The monthly risk briefing provides information on global weather, volcanic, human and health events where members may consider using the Start Fund’s Crisis Anticipation Window. It reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. This monthly risk briefing is collated by the Start Network anticipation team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

The risk of landslides are particulalry high in El Salvador given the continuing rainy season from mid April - July which also coincides with the hurricane season from June - October; Tensions are increasing in the lead up to the presidential elections on 30 July. On 23 June, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s new president, survived a grenade blast at a political rally in Bulawyo. Two people died, while 49 other remain in hospital. Tensions are increasing as the country experiences effects from fall armywarm and low rainfall contributing to low production in the current cropping season. Production prospects for the 2018 harvest are below average in most areas which could contribute to further tensions.

Download this month's risk briefing to learn about the risk of flooding in West Africa; measles epidemic in the DRC; increasing violence in Burundi alongside possible volcanic activity in Ecuador; increasing violence in the Philippines and Rift Valley fever in Kenya.