Risk Brief March 2021

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

This month’s Risk Brief includes:

The risk of cyclones affecting the Pacific Islands is expected to continue until the end of April, with the Government of Tonga predicting a 25% chance of a severe tropical cyclone and a 45% chance of a moderate tropical cyclone.
Continued election-related political crisis and violence that could escalate in the Central African Republic and Somalia. Meanwhile in Guatemala increased volcanic activity is being monitored which could exacerbate food insecurity.
In West Africa the response to an Ebola outbreak is underway to mitigate the risk of a larger outbreak.