Risk Brief June 2021

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

This month’s Risk Brief includes:

The risk of flooding in Sudan and Nepal due to wetter than usual seasons ahead.
The risk of drought in Kenya, where poor rainfall exacerbated by other factors could lead to significant food insecurity.
Political tensions ahead of the June elections in Ethiopia amid the ongoing situation in Tigray and Renaissance dam.

Meanwhile, there is higher than usual risk across several countries in Central America going into hurricane season (60% likelihood of an above average season). There are rescheduled elections due to take place in Somalia, and a UN Security Council vote to decide whether UN agencies can continue to deliver humanitarian assistance across the border into Syria.