Start Fund

Crisis Anticipation


The Start Fund Anticipation enables NGOs to prepare when they see a crisis coming and respond early to mitigate the predicted impacts. It is the first NGO funding mechanism to be available for anticipatory interventions.

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Don't wait, Anticipate


Since 2016 Start Network members have accessed the Start Fund in advance of a crisis and acted to mitigate and prevent the impact on at-risk communities before the disaster is forecast to strike. They have conducted risk analysis, monitoring forecasting information and crisis monitors of dynamic humanitarian situations to present timely alerts for Start Fund NGO-led decision making.

 

We believe that responding once the damage has been done is not good enough, and are advocating and building the evidence base alongside other actors to show and convince others that acting in anticipation saves money and lives.

 

We believe that responding once the damage has been done is not good enough, and are building the evidence base that acting in anticipation saves money and lives, as well as advocating alongside other actors for the mainstreaming of the anticipatory approach in the humanitarian sector. Local-level risk analysis, informed by the potential impacts on at-risk communities, is a necessary part of quality, risk-informed anticipatory action, and we are supporting this through building national FOREWARN groups.

 

At the World Humanitarian Summit in May 2016, UN Secretary-General called for the humanitarian community to invest in risk analysis and act early on findings. Through anticipatory funding disbursed through the Start Fund for small to medium crises, we are doing just that: In the future we will continue to anticipate crises globally, by working with forecasting agencies, academics and expert groups like FOREWARN, to better pre-empt humanitarian disasters worldwide.

Performance


Figures about anticipating through Start Funds since November 2016

Crises anticipated

26

Crises anticipated

Anticipation Alerts raised

38

Anticipation Alerts raised

Average days between alert and operations

7

Average days between alert and operations

Responses in # countries

21

Responses in # countries

Pounds disbursed

6,238,616

Pounds disbursed

Latest news


Resource

LEARN about Crisis Anticipation and Risk Financing

Start Network’s first virtual Assembly meeting took take place from Monday 12 to Thursday 15 October 2020, alongside our 10-year anniversary celebrations. Watch the recordings of the sessions related to Anticipation and Risk Finance and access all the learning materials below.

23Oct20

Resource

Start Fund handbook

This handbook details the procedures which govern the use and allocation of the Start Fund

24Jun20

Resource

June 2020 Risk Brief

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

10Jun20

Blog Post

Three key lessons to improve risk-based decision-making

In 2019, we commissioned our first evaluation of crisis anticipation at the Start Network. We were keen to reflect on our risk-taking, look at which hazards we needed to invest in to improve our skill, and learn how to better measure the quality of anticipation alert notes submitted to the Start Fund. A key element of this was to look back across anticipation alerts and see where our forecasted emergencies had happened as expected and what kind of differences we had seen.

28May20

The Anticipation Alert Cycle

Related documents


Resource

LEARN about Crisis Anticipation and Risk Financing

Start Network’s first virtual Assembly meeting took take place from Monday 12 to Thursday 15 October 2020, alongside our 10-year anniversary celebrations. Watch the recordings of the sessions related to Anticipation and Risk Finance and access all the learning materials below.

23Oct20

Resource

Monthly Risk Bulletin Issued: September 2020

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

15Sep20

Resource

Monthly Risk Bulletin Issued: August 2020

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

25Aug20

Resource

June 2020 Risk Brief

The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

10Jun20

Resource

Start Fund handbook

This handbook details the procedures which govern the use and allocation of the Start Fund

24Jun20

Resource

Start Fund: Evaluation of Crisis Anticipation

In 2019, we commissioned our first evaluation of crisis anticipation at the Start Network. We were keen to reflect on our risk-taking, look at which hazards we needed to invest in to improve our skill, and learn how to better measure the quality of anticipation alert notes submitted to the Start Fund. A key element of this was to look back across anticipation alerts and see where our forecasted emergencies had happened as expected and what kind of differences we had seen. The evaluation looked at fourteen anticipatory projects from thirteen different forecasted crises. It concluded that half of them had not occurred, which prompted a wider review of all the projects where data was available to determine whether their forecasts were correct. To do this, we used information submitted by implementing agencies when their project has finished. We looked at data from 37 projects, which were implemented across 24 different forecasted emergencies. Thirty-six percent of forecasted emergencies took place as predicted or with a more significant impact, meaning 64% either did not occur or occurred with less intensity. While the Start Network saw a few ‘false alarms’ as a characteristic of a healthily risk-taking humanitarian system, the number of near misses seemed high. Looking into the data, we learned three key points which will inform our approach moving forward.

28May20

Resource

Sector wide review of monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning methodologies for forecast-based action

This document summarises approaches used to evaluate the impact of forecast-based action to date from across the humanitarian sector. It is a useful reference for anyone setting up impact assessments of forecast-based action.

31Mar20

Resource

Do it yourself assessment of the impact and value for money, for a forecast-based project in Bangladesh

This learning paper documents the process and learning from an impact assessment of a forecast-based project in Bangladesh. It is useful for anyone looking at impact measurement of forecast-based action.

31Mar20

Resource

Mongolia: anticipation of harsh winter

Mongolia is unique. 30% of the population earn their livelihoods from herding livestock, leading a traditional nomadic life to enable their animals to access pasture throughout the year. Weather conditions can be extremely harsh, with long, stormy winters where temperatures can drop as low as -40C or -50C. Herders, and therefore the wider Mongolia economy, are vulnerable to the impacts of extreme winter weather. Dry summers can mean livestock do not gain the weight needed to survive winter, combined with harsh conditions this can cause mass livestock mortality known as ‘dzud’.

11Feb20

Resource

Putting People at the Centre of Early Action

A new report into Start Network's anticipation tool advises that going forward, enabling communities to act ahead of a potential disaster will require a focus on localisation, putting at-risk people at the centre of the process to mainstream of early humanitarian action.

13Nov19

Resource

Monthly risk briefing: June

The monthly risk briefing provides information on global weather, human and health events where members may consider using the Start Fund Anticipation process.

15Jul19

Resource

Good enough context analysis for rapid response

WHAT DOES GECARR PRODUCE? The output is a short document analysing the country context and needs, key actors, sources of cohesion and division (connectors and dividers) and likely future scenarios. It includes internal and external recommendations that inform organisational strategies, operational and security plans, programme designs and external messaging.

20May19

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