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The monthly risk briefing reports on new, emerging or deteriorating situations; therefore, ongoing events that are considered to be unchanged are not featured and risks that are beyond the scope and scale of the Start Fund are also not featured. It is collated by the Start Network Anticipation and Risk Financing team using information from academia and research institutes, government departments, ACAPS, global risk indexes, risk information provided by Start Members and their partners, and the media. Key risks are shared and collated each month with FOREWARN input.

In 2019, we commissioned our first evaluation of crisis anticipation at the Start Network. We were keen to reflect on our risk-taking, look at which hazards we needed to invest in to improve our skill, and learn how to better measure the quality of anticipation alert notes submitted to the Start Fund. A key element of this was to look back across anticipation alerts and see where our forecasted emergencies had happened as expected and what kind of differences we had seen. The evaluation looked at fourteen anticipatory projects from thirteen different forecasted crises. It concluded that half of them had not occurred, which prompted a wider review of all the projects where data was available to determine whether their forecasts were correct. To do this, we used information submitted by implementing agencies when their project has finished. We looked at data from 37 projects, which were implemented across 24 different forecasted emergencies. Thirty-six percent of forecasted emergencies took place as predicted or with a more significant impact, meaning 64% either did not occur or occurred with less intensity. While the Start Network saw a few ‘false alarms’ as a characteristic of a healthily risk-taking humanitarian system, the number of near misses seemed high. Looking into the data, we learned three key points which will inform our approach moving forward.

We have helped to mitigate the damage of impending disasters and, in some cases, managed to stop crises from forming altogether as a result of well-timed, pre-emptive action. Through these experiences, we have built a strong body of evidence that points to the value of early interventions to save time, money, and lives.

This learning paper documents the process and learning from an impact assessment of a forecast-based project in Bangladesh. It is useful for anyone looking at impact measurement of forecast-based action.

This document summarises approaches used to evaluate the impact of forecast-based action to date from across the humanitarian sector. It is a useful reference for anyone setting up impact assessments of forecast-based action.

In 2016, the Start Network launched the Start Fund Anticipation Window in Bonn. We set out to link Start Network members with forecasts of impending crises and to facilitate country-level collaborative risk analysis, to release funds before a disaster strikes. Twenty-five Start Network members have since led innovative anticipatory projects, in twenty-four crisis-prone countries.

This year’s harsh winter cold fronts created a potential humanitarian crisis in Mexico, especially in light of the country’s weak infrastructure and high rates of poverty. Start Network member, CADENA, submitted an alert to Start Fund in early November in anticipation of this crisis.

The Start Fund alerts responding to climate-related disasters are increasing year-on-year. Start Network’s anticipatory action provides NGOs with the coordination and funding to better respond to crises that are undoubtedly associated with climate change. An anticipatory response to predicted flooding in Sri Lanka was initiated in the second half of 2018 through Alert 282. It is 1 of 9 flood-related alerts that have been raised in this country in the past four years to the Start Fund.

The space of forecast-based and anticipatory action is predominantly made up of organisations acting in anticipation of natural disasters or famine. What makes Start Network stand out against other organisations is our ability to also act in anticipation of man-made or conflict-related crises. The way in which Start Network operates through its network of aid agencies enables us to tap into an established operational presence in these highly sensitive contexts, which ensures that information for anticipation programming is readily available and our interventions are highly contextualised.

We spoke to Dr Erica Thompson from the London School of Economics about her work with Start Network on anticipating crises.