This document summarises approaches used to evaluate the impact of forecast-based action to date from across the humanitarian sector. It is a useful reference for anyone setting up impact assessments of forecast-based action.
In 2016, the Start Network launched the Start Fund Anticipation Window in Bonn. We set out to link Start Network members with forecasts of impending crises and to facilitate country-level collaborative risk analysis, to release funds before a disaster strikes. Twenty-five Start Network members have since led innovative anticipatory projects, in twenty-four crisis-prone countries.
This year’s harsh winter cold fronts created a potential humanitarian crisis in Mexico, especially in light of the country’s weak infrastructure and high rates of poverty. Start Network member, CADENA, submitted an alert to Start Fund in early November in anticipation of this crisis.
The Start Fund alerts responding to climate-related disasters are increasing year-on-year. Start Network’s anticipatory action provides NGOs with the coordination and funding to better respond to crises that are undoubtedly associated with climate change. An anticipatory response to predicted flooding in Sri Lanka was initiated in the second half of 2018 through Alert 282. It is 1 of 9 flood-related alerts that have been raised in this country in the past four years to the Start Fund.
The space of forecast-based and anticipatory action is predominantly made up of organisations acting in anticipation of natural disasters or famine. What makes Start Network stand out against other organisations is our ability to also act in anticipation of man-made or conflict-related crises. The way in which Start Network operates through its network of aid agencies enables us to tap into an established operational presence in these highly sensitive contexts, which ensures that information for anticipation programming is readily available and our interventions are highly contextualised.
We spoke to Dr Erica Thompson from the London School of Economics about her work with Start Network on anticipating crises.
Mongolia is unique. 30% of the population earn their livelihoods from herding livestock, leading a traditional nomadic life to enable their animals to access pasture throughout the year. Weather conditions can be extremely harsh, with long, stormy winters where temperatures can drop as low as -40C or -50C. Herders, and therefore the wider Mongolia economy, are vulnerable to the impacts of extreme winter weather. Dry summers can mean livestock do not gain the weight needed to survive winter, combined with harsh conditions this can cause mass livestock mortality known as ‘dzud’.
Mongolia is unique. 30% of the population earn their livelihoods from herding livestock, leading a traditional nomadic life to enable their animals to access pasture throughout the year. Weather conditions can be extremely harsh, with long, stormy winters where temperatures can drop as low as -40C or -50C. Herders, and therefore the wider Mongolia economy are vulnerable to the impacts of extreme winter weather. Dry summers can mean livestock do not gain the weight needed to survive winter, combined with harsh conditions this can cause mass livestock mortality known as ‘dzud’.
Start Network has launched a new free 'Crisis Anticipation and Action' online training for Start Network members.
A new report into Start Network's anticipation tool advises that going forward, enabling communities to act ahead of a potential disaster will require a focus on localisation, putting at-risk people at the centre of the process to mainstream of early humanitarian action.
